2018 saw a lot of messy political and economic turmoil. We have seen an ongoing US trade dispute coupled with an unpredictable president. In Europe, Brexit negotiation turmoil and the discussions regarding Italy’s public debt all left their mark on the markets at the end of the last year.
The year 2019 will be marked by cleaning up the mess and trying to find one’s feet again.
The current global economic outlook has developed an itch somewhat, however I assume that the major economies will narrowly avoid a recession. This will also be reflected in the markets especially during the first half of the year when the markets will still be looking for their lowest point. Most of the negative news to date should have already be priced in.
While Europe and Asia are already sounding out the bottom, America is still in the process of finding it. Although evaluations are comparatively high, in my opinion the US economy is currently still quite robust. I see limits more at the upper end rather than the stock markets developing and sustaining a further sharp slump. Regardless, I expect comparatively higher volatility in 2019.
For the year as a whole, I expect moderate price gains compared with the current levels for both Europe and Asia and somewhat lower for North America. However, we will probably not see new highs in the stock markets in 2019. That remains for 2020 and 2021, unless global risks expand further.
Author: Top Trader Dowrex
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